Tsunami of public opinion and the response of the marooned political class

The political class in this country has always moulded the public opinion and is used to commandeering it by (dividing them into religion or caste-based communities,) appealing to raw and the basest and the most archaic instincts of people and historical schisms between communities in terms of their caste, cultural and religious identities. Lack of information, education and enlightenment among the people in broad swaths of the country which foster superstition, outdated outlook and conservatism came in handy in perpetuating this hegemony. And in this they have always had implicit support of the ruling classes, the economically rich and powerful, both in the cities and villages.

But the development breakthrough brought in by the emerging capitalism in India since the 1990s through the policies of liberalization has changed this force field. India is changing with growing aspirational urban middle classes, whose ranks are slowly but surely being swelled with new entrants from poorer and historically and socially backward classes. Ironically, this is helped by the affirmative policies embraced by successive governments and that of positive discrimination that is the staple of the serial political drama played out by the political class for the last three decades. With the growth in the urbanization, education, enterprise, exposure to international standards through television and mobile telephony (probably two major drivers of demands for consumer products that indirectly helped economic growth) came the need for information. At least urban Indians (especially those in semi-urban, tier-2 or tier-3 cities and towns) - and their numbers are no longer miniscule or could be safely ignored in political calculations - are getting to know about the products, standard of life, standard of services available in the most developed and metropolitan cities of the country. They are also getting informed how the best of capitalism is brought out in the first rate cities in the first world countries by harnessing it through intelligent and efficient regulation and steadfastly following the rule of law. 

This underlies the importance and increasing role of the media (especially the electronic version) in highlighting the deficiencies, inequities, unreasonableness in our political system and amplifying the popular impatience about the status quo sought to be maintained by the establishment – the government bureaucracy and the political class – and delays in redressal of the public grievances.

There is also the new technological developments in internet based communication and dissemination (social media platforms, blogosphere) that has made this tide of anti-political class sentiment due to its speed and extent of spread – through spontaneous articulation, repetition, recycling, resonance, lack of a command structure, runaway unpredictability – resemble a tsunami, that of public opinion (something the political class has not yet learnt to commandeer to its selfish goals).

It is in the light of the above that we could analyse what might appear as a beginning of a rethinking by the political class on the bill and later the ordinance to retain the lifeline available in the existing Representation of the People Act (RPA), proposed to be snatched by the Supreme Court in its July judgment, to the convicted members of the parliament and the assemblies. Is this a belated recognition of the strength of public opinion against the criminalisation of politics? It is difficult to be sure, though. Indications are there about the political parties individually readjusting their public posturing, especially keeping in view the imminent need to face the electorates for the assembly elections in four states during the end of this year and for the big parliament election early next year. 

It was the Congress party that actually took the lead through an all-party meeting to reach a consensus about bringing about a bill in the Parliament making the requisite changes in the Representation of the People Act (RPA) so that the elected representatives can continue to hold their position despite conviction, with some marginal restrictions. Practically every party, including the BJP, supported the move. But somehow between that meeting and the actual debate in the Parliament when the bill was introduced, the principal opposition party and also smaller parties like BJD, CPI etc, were smart enough to sense the public mood (to be more accurate the mood of the articulate and educated middle classes) and opposed the bill brought by the ruling party. When at the end of an acrimonious day of debate the bill was referred to the standing committee, it was clear that the political class bought some time for themselves.

Pressures from the parties supporting the UPA, like the SP and RJD, whose leader Lalu Yadav was looking at the spectre of disqualification as MP after his possible conviction in the fodder scam case, partly forced the hand for Congress. There was also this arrogance of power, feeling of hurt among some cabinet ministers who pride themselves as the legal eagles being forced to bite dust on their own legislative turf. One found a determined government pushing the so-called Congress Core group into resolving to bring the law by the backdoor of an ordinance to be regularized later in the parliament’s winter session.

The response of the BJP was crafted on the basis of their cynical estimate that their current losses, if any, due to the application of the new legal provision, would be more than made up by cornering the Congress in the forthcoming assembly elections later this year if they can get on to the right side of the enormously negative public opinion about the ordinance. They went to town crying hoarse (including protesting to the President) about the Congress party’s mala fide intentions in pushing the bill as an ordinance and parading their own consistent stand opposing the bill since the parliament debate.

Congress party’s own prevarication was finally ended when they realized firstly that persuading the President, if not about the legality but the morality of the ‘criminal’ ordinance, would not be a cakewalk. Secondly in some quarters of the party, especially its youth enclaves, the realization had set in that pushing through this ordinance would alienate the party from the young India of the social media, the new voters, aspiring among other things a better definition and practice of the rule of law. Certainly they were loath to loose the game to the opposition even before it began.

Thus the two main political parties, though not voluntarily, showed for once a remarkable alacrity in deferring to the undercurrent of a progressive public opinion in favour of a more lawful political space where the electoral exercise might aspire to become cleaner and fairer. If this trend can be sustained it will certainly be good for our democracy.



Rise of the middle India

Though middle classes usually have been perceived by the political establishment to have only marginal importance based on its numerical sparseness vis-à-vis the electoral politics, the centerpiece of a mass democracy like India, they have always played a significant role in shaping the public opinion on a number of issues that affect Indian society, politics and economy.

Till recently, political parties, leaders and their apparatchicks, sympathasiers, apologists in the media generally believed that no matter how much vocal the educated, city-bred critics from among the middle classes appear to be, neither the party ruling the government nor the major opposition parties (harboring an intention to topple it and come to power after the next election) have anything to fear from these agitators because of their own strong ‘mass base’ which in the Indian political lexicon is sometimes pejoratively termed as the ‘vote bank’.

The twin advantages that the political parties had derived (and continue to do so) by sticking to their comfort zone are (a) the numerical preponderance of their support base and (b) the awareness about the lowest common denominator that binds and cements this base, namely, narrow sectional, sectarian, regional, religious interests in the context of winning the electoral battle (which, sadly, has become the be all and end all of the Indian democracy). Indian parties have by and large, over these last sixty five years since independence, found in the issues related to reservation of caste-based job and education quota (with further religion-based sub-quota being attempted recently) much more emotive appeal for the mass electorate they identify as their major constituency, and therefore put their weights behind such slogans and political actions, rather than enlightened measures for bringing corruption under control or to usher gender equality or dignity and justice for women. Also over the years the mainstream parties, often solely governed by populist tailism (not to forget the calculation of the eventual accrual of the electoral benefits) have unwittingly pandered to pressure groups fighting for the recognition of the various regional (even sub-regional or tribal) aspirations and ethnic identities. So much so that today there is a genuine fear of marginalisation of the so-called ‘national’ parties and their increasing irrelevance in major states and regions of this sub-continental nation.

However, over the last decade or so a wind of change has become slowly but surely emerging in various parts of the country, especially in major cities and towns which, somewhat awkwardly, may be described as an awakening of a liberal conscience of an under-performing democracy and it is the middle classes that are taking the lead. Broadly there were four notable developments that could be said to provide a backdrop to the new assertions to reclaim democracy in this country from being hostage to petty party politics.

The landmark public protests by large sections of concerned citizens in respect of the travesty of justice in the Jessica Lal murder case (and the Priyadarshini Mattoo rape and murder case in almost contemporaneous time frame) brought about a new non-political space where students, youth, women, senior citizens, activists, NGOs could publicly articulate their anguish and dismay at the apparent miscarriage of justice. Though limited in scope the successful outcome of these protests in creating enough public pressure to cause revisiting these cases at the higher courts and eventual sentencing of the accused suggested a template for the citizenry to articulate their justified grievances against the non-performance of the machinery of the state. More pertinently, the activists on the streets and their silent supporters in homes and offices saw that money, political connections, muscle power need not invariably tilt the scale of justice in favor of those who flaunt them and ordinary people could get justice from the judicial system which otherwise looked inefficient and ineffective.

The new Indian ‘animal spirit’

As a part of his opening remarks made by the prime minister at the interaction with selected newspaper editor on June 29, 2011 he said :

“… frankly speaking in our country this constant sniping between government and opposition or if an atmosphere of cynicism is created all round I think the growth impulses, the entrepreneurial impulses of our people will not flourish and that is what worries me. We must do all that we can to revive the animal spirits of our businesses (our emphasis)”.

What the PM implied was that he was worried that the animal spirit of entrepreneurship of Indians unleashed by him in 1991 might get bottled up in the wake of the corruption controversies, media’s zeal to unearth more scams within government, industry (including proponents and beneficiaries of what has come to be known as crony capitalism), bureaucracy and of course the politicians. Clearly he did not think what he minimally described as “businessmen cutting corners” anything more serious than a weakness in our regulatory system. For him fixing loopholes in the regulatory system is all that is required to address and remedy the clear wrongdoings by parts of bureaucracy, politicians and the beneficiaries in the industry which were pointed out by the CAG, a constitutional body, essentially part of the government. For him too much criticism of the ‘elected government’ would make the bureaucracy hamstrung and lead to impeding or curtailing of the liberalizing economic reforms, affecting the enthusiasm of the entrepreneurs, industry captains and investors. Reviving this ‘animal spirits’, for him, was, has been and is a priority rather than chasing issues of corruption, ‘cutting corners’ by the spirited animals of a new India. 

It may be true that this animal spirit that has helped to drive India’s GDP growth over better part of the last two decades and provided the new-found confidence of Indians in industry, business (especially service sector) and in advertisement, entertainment, fashion and sports. However, one suspects the misplaced spiritedness also having had a hand in the rising rowdiness/arrogance of a certain section of the population highlighted by increasing number of cases of road rage and drunken driving (leading to death and disability to pavement dwellers), kidnapping for ransom, rape, acid attack and other kinds of violence against women, and finally murder for flimsy reasons. The final denouement in the Aravind Adiga novel ‘Last man in tower’ about unsheathed greed goading ordinary people to enact a chilling Macbeth like scenario does not probably appear too contrived in the backdrop of swelling testosterone of animal spirits in a new and almost unfamiliar India.

Though road rage per se is not a cognizable offence under Indian penal code (though often leading to severe assault and death which then becomes one), nor even recorded as a traffic violation, it is probably a very sensitive barometer relating gratuitous violence to apparent economic propsperity (at least to some sections of the population). Roughly 10 million cars, buses, trucks, scooters and motorbikes crowd New Delhi's roads every day, causing long traffic jams and frayed tempers. The city's roads have not kept up with the growth in traffic. While the number of vehicles has grown by over 200 percent over the past two decades, the number of kilometers of road has grown only about 15 percent, as per the transport department. People are on the road for a longer period, and everyone has become impatient. The result is a situation in which even a small verbal confrontation might soon escalate to a physical fight. Vehicles especially new spanky cars, being often a powerful symbol of a newly acquired wealth of a person, if someone on the road even inadvertently scrapes it and leaves a scratch this may feel like an assault on a person's status which is considered unacceptable and a fight ensues. [The above statistics and conditions on the Delhi roads adapted from a write up entitled “Road rage in India growing along with economy” (NDTV.COM ,December 28, 2010)]

There are enough statistics to nail the myth of the benefit of economic growth percolating to poor doing the rounds of government departments, planning commission and their appologists in the press and television. Assuming, however, it is only percolating and not exactly flooding the BPL India with food and fuel, the penetration of the TV and particularly mobile phones, on the other hand, among the Indians in the far corners of the country has been much more noteworthy. Unwittingly for the ruling classes, while these new communication media whetted the economic and social aspirations in the rural hinterland it had also brought home to them the undeniable inequality among ‘us’ and ‘them’ and the growing disparity of incomes. Nor has the growth of employment over these two decades of liberalized economy regime been anything but tardy despite the prime minister’s protestations and promise. Incidences of scams, swindling by the crony capitalists, on the other hand, grew. There has been, in recent years, a rise in the death of whistleblowers, RTI activists (anybody who resists/question cronies and criminals who usurp the spoils of the so-called liberalized economy). And of course the statistics on drunken driving, road rage, rape, kidnapping and murder show an upswing. Whether or not the famed ‘animal spirit’ of the Indian entrepreneurs is in evidence or not the animals in India, including the WHITE TIGERS, are growling. Be advised.